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Friday, December 16, 2011

Semi-serious handicapping of the 2012 field

Going into the primaries, Republicans and conservatives (again I say that they are not always the same thing) are desperately scanning the field, looking for the "right guy" to take on the nomination and go head to head with Obama.
Since we're now clear of the final GOP debate, I thought I'd do a little handicapping...Kruta style.


Romney: 
-gubernatorial experience, though he left Massachusetts in debt
-can attract the moderate vote
-stole John Kerry's hair
-appointed liberal judges while Governor of Massachusetts
-drew the blueprints for Obamacare
-supported gun control
-was a self-proclaimed moderate and progressive - until it became politically expedient to not be


Gingrich:
-leadership experience as Speaker
-excellent record on right-to-life issues
-intellect that borders on ridiculous
-likens himself to Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson
-supported No Child Left Behind and other progressive social programs
-supported the individual mandate


Paul:
-fiscally brilliant
-as tired of government waste as we are
-honestly believes that Iran will not attempt to level the United States (or at the very least, Israel) if they are allowed to gain nuclear weapons technology


Michelle Bachmann:
-consistent in her conservatism on both fiscal and social issues
-congressional record that backs her words
-still fresh in Washington
-has leveled a few unfounded accusations - suggesting that Newt Gingrich's pro life record was less than stellar, and claiming that the HPV vaccine cause mental problems


Rick Perry:
-strong foreign policy ideas
-pro life and traditional family
-has never lost an election
-gubernatorial experience - and a strong record as governor
-used to be a democrat
-tends to place his foot in his mouth on camera and during debates
-mandated HPV vaccine (though he later said that was a mistake)


Rick Santorum:
-strong foreign policy
-strong pro-life record
-has won in a battleground state before (Pennsylvania)
-doesn't generate the necessary excitement to draw the vote


Jon Huntsman:
-gubernatorial experience (with a decent record)
-advocates a flat tax plan
-speaks Chinese
-could draw the moderate vote


So, how does that all play out? Huntsman might as well stay home, because if Republicans want a moderate they will vote Romney. Bachmann had a good start and has strong points, but ultimately she will get knocked out for lack of experience (and the few people who bought into the media's "but she's crazy" narrative). At this point, she seems to be cheerleading for Romney. Ron Paul's moment of opportunity comes if conservatives decide that Romney and Gingrich are both too moderate and everyone else is either too crazy or too unelectable. 
The real question comes down to what kind of voters will come out to the primaries. If Republicans vote based on perceived electability, the nomination will most likely go to Romney or Gingrich. If they vote based on conservative records and strong positions on the issues, it will go to Perry or Santorum.

1 comment:

  1. If I were to bet money I'd put it on Romney, though sadly. Until then I support Ron Paul, financially and otherwise.

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